Post by atlantaal on Mar 2, 2023 12:55:15 GMT -5
Here are my nearly-annual, nearly-fearless and somewhat accurate New England High School Wrestling Championships predictions. Last season's prediction weren't too bad, so let's do this again. I will point out from the beginning that I and we are entirely indebted to Max Schwartz who does the New England rankings throughout the season for Connecticut Wrestling Online. I couldn't even begin without those compilations, so thanks Max. Here we go.
106 - There is a big gap here between RI and the top NE talent at this weight, but now I am curious whether Denzel Monteiro can close that gap. Previous contenders hadn't fared so well outside of Rhody, as William Soe had lost to Pote of Danbury (4th in CT Open, previously ranked as high as 2 in NE) in the Sanford SWAT finals 14-0, and while previously ranked 2nd in RI Hulkow had good out-of-state success, he never made the finals in three such tourneys and had been pinned by such notables as Shabazz of Xavier, CT (NE #1) and Lyford of Spaulding, VT (NE #6). So I wasn't expecting an RI placer this season, But, I am intrigued by the younger Mr. Monteiro who ripped through the States with a pin over Hulkow and a major over Soe. I still think the gap is too wide for this year. Shabazz is my guy, in part because he had to contend with peers like Pote and Oberc of New Milford (who beat Monteiro at the Gorman tourney though he was edged by Soe) all season and always came out on top. Morales of Andover, MA looks like the next best guy with wins in Lowell and Mass Open. Lyman and Ouellette have beaten each other and form the next tier. Pote is in the mix; after that, maybe Monteiro or Poe could slip in, but Mass. itself seems to bring 6 guys each year who could place in New Englands at 106, so Rhody might need another year.
113 - Well, there is a gap here too though it's not as big, but man the ceiling is high. Isiah Adams of Avon, CT stands head and shoulders, or how much his 5-foot whatever frame allows, over the rest of the field. Seems like Conn. has a lightweight like him every year or other, someone who dominates at one class but still drops down and dominates more. Adams won Lowell at 120, then dropped to 113 and has run roughshod over his opposition (though a relatively tight 5-2 decision over Xavier's Gonzalez in the Open semis). Behind him is Mass. stalwart Alex Schaeublin of St. Johns Prep, a legacy wrestler from a legacy school. Next is NE 3rd placer James Blood of Sanford, ME, all seniors. Then we can look at Messrs. Hood and Conlan, who have a ton of experience at this point in this tourney and throughout the northeast. Jared's near-place at Easterns (including a narrow 10-6 loss to Danbury's Soto) and Ryan's Lowell runner-up finish and win at David Ironman in NY puts them in the middle of New England contenders. Max has Lowell champ Peter Rincan of Bedford, NH between them in NE rank, and Gonzalez and Mass. runner-up Vickers of Northbridge make a solid group, so it would be hard for Hope's Hidalgo to break through. Nevertheless it's realistic to think RI should have one or two place-winners in this class.
120 - No gap here as Max has had Peyton Ellis ranked No.1 all season, with Ponsy's David Perez rising to 3rd and Martim replacing Martin in the rankings (before States; that ranking will re-reverse). Ellis and Perez could both make the finals, in that as state finalists they have to be in opposite brackets, and there isn't anyone so dominant between them. Aydin Cofone of Maine has had a terrific season but hasn't faced the same level of competition and just edged Cam Davis for 5th in NE last season. Mass. champ Carbone of Shawsheen and Conn. champ Joe Mahoney of New Fairfield are obvious contenders, but both were handled pretty well by Adams at 120 at Lowell. Darling of Essex Tech, MA, is just a notch behind, about where Davis is this season. So yeah, maybe RI could have had four hammers here, but we've got three with the odds greatly favoring at least two placers and maybe the champ.
126 - Last season I could not come up with a reason why Jacob Joyce would not win a New England title. I can't come up with a reason this season either. There is good opposition, of course, but his chief competition, NE runner-up James Tildsley of Shawsheen moved up to 132 after winning 126 at Lowell. Conn. has it's usual roster of contenders, but they've spent most of the season going back and forth, with sophomore Spardaro of Fairfield Warde prevailing in CT LL and Open, and New Fairfield's Tipaldi the Open runner-up - who was pinned by J. Tildsley at Lowell, as was CT Open 3rd Gardella. Mass. champ Callahan of Tewksbury was pinned by Gardella in the Lowell semis. So yeoman talent, but no clear threat to Jacob's second title. It will be intriguing to see how a young dynamic wrestler like Andrew McCarthy fairs in this field.
132 - Like many I think this is Hayden Myers' year after two NE placings. James Tildsley isn't the main obstacle though. There's Mass. champ Jonah Paulino of Montachusett who topped Tildsley 6-0 in the Open finals. But I see the top threat as Conn. champ Kaden Ware of Killingly who topped NE 6th Kyle Levesque of Xavier 4-0 in the Open finals. Hayden won by default over Ware for 3rd in NE at 126 last year. This season he handled Levesque 7-0. I think he's the man this year, and he'll need to prove it by going through both Levesque and Paulino on his side of the bracket, then probably the Tildsley-Ware winner in the finals (they meet in the Round of 16!). Connor Swain has had a terrific career and is good enough to break through here, but he has a pathway through CT 5th Gibli and Maine runner-up Ripley.
138 - an interesting class with a clear favorite in returning NE champ Sidney Tildsley of Shawsheen Tech (still just a sophomore) and then, a lot of questions. Max's Feb. 22 rankings had Conn.'s Jaeckez Mendez of East Hartford and Anthony Basile (Xavier) 2 and 3, and they may well be with Mendez prevailing 5-2 the Open finals. The Mass. second best has been changing, with Cam Ice of Minnechaug finishing second at the Open, ahead of SJP's D'Amborsino and Newton South's Kadish, previously Max's 4 and 5 in NE. Kaleb Whitney of Otter Valley fell to third in VT, while NH's Williams of Windham might be a sleeper. Joseph Joyce slots in about here, but should it be higher? He has beaten every seasoned RI opponent that he faced and went 3-1 at the Easterns before a medical forfeit to Maine champ Kaden Dustin; that would have been a good match to see. Eneas Costillo has been both up and down in out-of-state tournaments this season, but as he showed at States he is tough to count out. It will take a superb effort from either of these two to place this time.
145 - Remember how last season I said there's always someone come NE championship time who is "The Guy." That Guy that you just can't see him being beaten no matter who else shows up. William Ebert of Fairfield Warde last year, now starting at Binghamton in Division I. Connor McGonagle of Timberlane four years ago, now ranked 7th in the NCAAs at Lehigh. Either of the Jack brothers of Danbury, stars at North Carolina State. This year it is Gabriel Bouyssou of Little Rhody, except he's like That Guy and-a-half. And he's got a way to go. But it's wrestling, not a coronation, so who's the competition? Start with CT champ Thomas Bock of New Fairfield, who prevailed over Fairfield Prep's William Smith while Lowell champ Jonah Weber of Avon was third. Mass. champ Elliot Humphries of Minnechaug rates a bit lower, having been edged by Weber in the Lowell finals, with MA runner-up Xaedyn Natal still a contender. The fun comes from seeing how RI's young and talented Colby Vital and Aziz Mian match-up with this talent.
And, just as occurred last year, Max Schwartz came out with his final NE Rankings on Connecticut Wrestling Online just when I’m half-way through my less-knowledgeable efforts. Nevertheless, I’ll continue apace using Max’ Feb. 22 assessments and the recent state championship results.
152 – The biggest question was answered when returning champ Jack Richardson of Killingly dropped to 152 for the Connecticut Class S championship then handled business in the Open Championship the following week. But good as he is Richardson isn’t necessarily unbeatable, as an odd pin in the Central Connecticut Regional the week before Class S in the 160 semis shows, and he won last year after finishing second in the State Open. Still, he’s the guy to beat until someone does it and RI champ Jason Hood, 4th in NE last season, Eastern States runner-up (at 145) may be the guy. Or multi-time Maine champ and NE 5th Derek Cote of Noble. After that there’s a drop-off though Braintree’s McGourty was dominant in the Mass. Open, and NH up-and-comer David Pento was likewise impressive for Londonberry and was 5th in NE as a frosh. RI runner-up Luke Montefusco was ranked much of the season and could work into this top six group, but he would have Cote early and then the McGourty-Richardson winner. All things considered, Jason has a pretty good bracket as he works towards a possible NE title.
160 – Wow, I think this is the toughest weight in the tourney, yet it’s topped by another returning champ, the very formidable Rawson Iwanicki of SJP. He’s definitely No. 1, and you can pick your No. 2 from among our own Andrew Reall, second at Easterns, Kalil Bourjelli of New Milford (he was Open runner-up as a frosh 3 years ago) and Brent Nicholosi of Haverhill the Lowell champ. Bourjelli would be my guy, he was a monster from day one in his career, but lost 2021 to Covid and most of 2022 to injury, so he’s primed. But he has Iwanicki in the top bracket. Reall has Nicholosi and a bunch of Mass. guys – ALL of whom are potential placers – in the lower half. Winfield and Campbell have been ranked by Max this season, but I think this is just too tough a group for anyone but Reall to place, perhaps to the finals.
170 – Another weightclass with great talent but a clear-cut favorite in NE 3rd Rafael Knapp of Algonquin, this season’ Lowell champ. RI’s Isael Perez (Lowell runner-up) and Nick Baccala (Eastern placer) follow with a bunch of CT guys: Open champ Stiles of Newton, runner-up Gilchrist of Norwalk, Mairano of Simsbury. Then there’s Aaron Johnson of Mt. Anthony and Toll Gate’s Tyler Hunter. Seeding is big here with so many contenders, and it’ll be tough for the RI entries. Isael has the winner of Mairano and MA 3RD Jack Walsh in his first match, then perhaps Johnson in the semis, but no Knapp until the finals. Baccala starts with a wrestle in to get to Gilchrist and then Knapp in the quarters. RI should have at least one place-winner here but absolutely nothing will come easily.
182 – The good news for RI is that Nathan Blanchette of Central Catholic is in the opposite bracket from Spencer Fine. The returning NE champ topped him decisively at the Concord Capital Classic and hasn’t been challenged in New England. Pellegri of Milton, MA lost by just two to Blanchette in the Lowell finals but was upset by Walsh of Bedford in the MA Open semis who was then majored by Blanchette (Fine likely gets Pellegri in his first match). Maine’s Hainer is still a contender, and Xavier’s Charles Weidman beat a good Connecticut field of 182 pounders including Eastern place-winner Iaquinto of Danbury. Preston Marchesseault is a wildcard because of his limited competition this season, but he was fourth at Easterns, losing to Knapp at 172 and could definitely place. I still see it as Blanchette and Fine in the finals and hope for a better result.
195 – More essentially equivalent talent here with a fairly clear-cut favorite. Brendan Gilchrist was 195 NE runner-up last season and has been ranked No. 1 all season. Chariho’s Maraira was 4th in NE at this weight out of a 3rd place RI finish, but lately beaten by Hope’s Imanol Tavares who was edged by Gilchrist 9-7 in the Lowell finals. Add in Mass. champ Nathan Leach of Bridewater-Rayham and runner-up Michael Toppan of Gloucester, as well as CT runner-up Montavani of East Hartford and even RI 3rd Ben Wilcox of Woonsocket and you have guys who could go back-and-forth on placing positions. But it still seems like Gilchrist at the top, literally in the bracket, with possibly Imanol in the semis and Corbin in the lower bracket.
220 – I just can’t read this weightclass at all. Results seem to have been all over the place this season, as an overlay of the Lowell results with mostly Mass. placers shows versus the Mass. Open finishers. Jaden Toppen of Gloucester won the Mass. Open in SV over Logan Frank of Taunton, yet at Lowell he was pinned in 13 second in the semis by DesLauriers of Ashland. DesLauriers didn’t even place in the Open; neither did No. 1 seed Johnson of Mansfield. Connecticut’s 220 pounders went back-and-forth as well with James Duhancik of Stratford prevailing but previously No. 1 ranked in CT Don Chivas of Derby out. Kaden Cyr of Bonny Eagle ME should be a contender, but this is a tough group to seed. Logan Reiner bettered his NE ranking over other NE-ranked RI grapplers Andrew Alchihed and Michael DiOrio in the State tournament and I think he can do the same thing at the New England tournament. He’ll find out if he gets to the Toppan-Cyr winner in the semis.
285 – There is a gap here too between RI and the top talent, most of which comes from MA. Honestly, all six Massachusetts entries could place, led by Thomas Brown of Chelmsford, last year’s 3rd place finisher and one of three MA returning placers. There are other talents of course, notably Timberlane’s Colon and CT champ and Eastern placer Nuh Ajdinoski of Danbury. How tough is Joe Church’s task? His first match is almost surely against Hampton Kaye-Kuter of Milford MA, a returning NE champ. Yes, that’s in the Round of 16. Survive that and you get Colon, then the winner of Ajdinoski or Braden Marceau of Melrose, 5th in NE at 285 and an NHSCA All-American. Yikes. Still, Church has been solid all year and was ranked in Max’s polls for half the season and survived an encounter with Church, so anything is possible. Again, it’s not a popularity contest, it’s a wrestling tournament and the best one we have, so enjoy!
As for the team race I’m going to call it for Ponaganset and leave it at that. Their margin of victory should be comparable to what we saw at States. St. Johns and Xavier should be the top contenders, but here’s where Coventry with two probable finalists and likely champs can score some points, with Hope factoring in there as well. It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
